Another update on the GOP primary

I hadn't planned to do another GOP primary update until after we saw the South Carolina results, but it's been such a news-o-rific few days that I thought I'd pass along a few thoughts on what's been happening:

1) Late-night comedian Stephen Colbert is now running a shadow campaign and asking folks to vote for Herman Cain as a vote for Colbert.  This seems likely to attract a lot of non-Republican votes, but not likely to have much impact on who wins in South Carolina.  However, in a close outcome even a few protest votes for Colbert/Cain might make a difference and the current polls are very closely split between Romney and Gingrich.

What's most worth paying attention to in Colbert's campaign is the message that he and Jon Stewart are delivering about the utter hypocrisy of the "SuperPAC" finance process and the general state of campaign finance regulation.  If you've never checked out their shows, (Daily Show with Jon Stewart, Colbert Report) it's worth visiting their websites to watch a few clips of their commentary on Colbert's SuperPAC and campaign.

2) Speaking of close outcomes, it turns out that Rick Santorum actually won the vote in Iowa! The Iowa Republican Party has issued its final vote count for the Iowa caucuses, reversed the preliminary initial outcome of an eight-vote victory for Santorum, and declared Santorum to be the winner with 29,839 votes (24.6%) a 34-vote victory over 29,805 to Mitt Romney.  This minor adjustment in the vote count shouldn't mean anything in terms of delegate allocation.

The real impact of Romney's apparent win a couple of weeks ago was that Romney got two weeks of good press for "winning" Iowa. Now it turns out that he didn't even do that.  Some guys have all the luck.

3) We also had two midweek dropouts: Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry.  That they dropped out wasn't a surprise, though the midweek timing of each was a bit unusual.

I thought Huntsman would drop out the morning after finishing third in New Hampshire. He spent another five days on the campaign trail in South Carolina before yielding to the inevitable.  Perry looked briefly as if he would drop out after Iowa, then decided to bypass New Hampshire for South Carolina. But he'd faded badly in the polls and was likely under a lot of pressure to stop splitting the Anybody-But-Romney vote.

Huntsman endorsed Romney and Perry endorsed Gingrich.  Neither had enough of a following in South Carolina to make a big impact with the endorsement. The departures probably helped Romney and Santorum more than the endorsements. Huntsman's departure cleared the field of any competition for Romney among GOP moderates. Perry's departure narrowed the Anybody-But-Romney field to Gingrich and Rick Santorum, since Ron Paul has never seemed to fit the Anybody-But-Romney role.

Looking forward, if the nomination is still up for grabs in April, the Perry endorsement of Gingrich could play a significant role when Texas votes on April 3. That's an advantage for Gingrich, since Mitt Romney's victory is already a foregone conclusion in Utah (Huntsman's home state) when it becomes the last state to vote on June 26.

With so much afoot, let's go back and revisit my post-Iowa questions. We already have a much clearer view than we did two weeks ago:

1) Can Rick Santorum capitalize on his Iowa finish to accumulate the money, resources, and endorsements that will let him compete with Romney in states where Romney has a long-established presence?

--He's already won a state since he lost that close decision in Iowa. Unfortunately for him, that state was Iowa, via a recount that comes a bit late. Santorum did pick up the endorsement of a group of conservatives and evangelicals over the weekend. However, it doesn't seem to have helped him in the polls. If he does indeed finish a distant third or fourth in South Carolina, he would need to bounce back very strongly in Florida (Jan. 31) to stay in the race. Otherwise he's going to get a lot of pressure to cede the Anybody-But-Romney position to Gingrich.

The Iowa recount outcome gives him a plausible rationale for staying in for Florida, no matter what happens in South Carolina. He can now say, "Hey! I won a state, too!" But it may not give him the resources to mount an effective campaign in Florida.  I'd guess that South Carolina is Santorum's last stand.


2) How long does Newt Gingrich stay in the race? If he does go full-scale negative on Romney, does it stick?

--Gingrich has been hammering Romney in South Carolina, and it seems to be working.  Gingrich has regained considerable momentum and is tied with Romney in the South Carolina polls.


3) If Santorum fades, can Perry find a second wind from the Anybody-But-Romney vote? It seems improbable, but it's not out of the question.

--The answer was a clear, unambiguous "No." Perry's disastrous 2012 campaign will also almost certainly prevent another try in 2016.


4) Will Ron Paul campaign all the way through to the convention? His enthusiastic support could be a significant asset for the eventual GOP nominee.  If he bolts the party again, it could spell disaster in the general election.

--He looks set to campaign all the way through to the convention, and to stick in the party once his fate is sealed. Since so much of his support comes from outside the traditional GOP base, keeping him in the race probably does the Republican Party some good by drawing voters into their tent. I doubt he'll get much pressure to shut down his campaign until somebody has the nomination mathematically secure. In the meantime, if he can run up a high enough delegate total he could have a significant impact on the party platform and VP selection at the convention.