Does it seem like a lot of people you know have caught Covid recently?

 Does it seem like a lot of people you know have caught Covid recently? This seems like a good time for an explanation of why the current Covid situation is probably worse than you think. You should be wearing a good mask whenever you go indoors and probably whenever you're in an outdoors crowd.

The basic problem is that Omicron BA.5 is becoming the dominant variant. It is extremely contagious and also has shifted enough genetically that vaccinations and previous infection provide a good deal less protection that was the case with earlier variants.

Here are three images that show where things stand. Here's a link to the CDC web site:

COVID-19 Integrated County View

The first image is the CDC's "Community Level" map. In many ways it is a measure of how likely you are to get a hospital bed or an ICU unit if you come down with severe Covid. About ten days ago this map was mostly green. It has gotten much worse since then. 

The second image is the CDC's "Community Transmission" map. It functions as a measure of how much Covid transmission is in your community. This is a very important measure if you are trying to avoid a breakthrough case for yourself or a family member who is elderly or immunocompromised.

This map has been mostly red since the Omicron BA.2 spike started this spring. The CDC site defaults to the first map, which is generally used for policy decisions. You have to go into the dropdown menu to select "Community Transmission" to see this map.

The final image is a couple of graphs of testing and testing numbers for my home county of Oakland County, Michigan, over the last year. 

One of the major changes in testing from this winter's initial Omicron spike is the much greater availability of home testing kits. So actual total-case rates are believed to be significantly higher than the officially reported rate. (I've seen a lot of different estimates as to how much more, so I won't speculate here. Let's just say "much more".) As you can see, the number of reported tests are way down, but the current positivity rate is approaching the levels of this winter's initial Omicron spike. The rate increased 3.23% to 17.55% in just the last week.

So, yeah, Covid is bad out there right now. It's almost certainly going to get worse before it gets better.

Do yourself and your friends and your family a favor. Mask up. 

Important Diet Tip!

Not surprisingly, step one of my 2014 "get back in better health" project involves eating better. To that end I've adopted the one diet that I know generally works pretty well for me: cutting out just about everything with added sugar.  That sounds harder than it is, as long as you're willing to cook for yourself and to read ingredient lists. One thing I always find interesting about this process is that once I cut off the sugar, almost all of the desire for sugar goes away, too.

To that bit of dietetic discipline I've added a pretty significant cutback in my "pure carbohydrate" foods: bread, pasta, potatoes, and rice.  I'm letting in a bit of wheat bread and brown rice for now, but in much smaller quantities than my usual heaping portions.  The idea here is to force my body to start burning down a bit of the massive storehouse of fat that it's built up over the years.

The final bit: cutting way back on the beer. Sigh.  I'm not even going to pretend that I'll cut it out altogether, but it's under huge cutdown until further notice. Sigh.

In general, so far, so good. This is a long-term project.  I will, however, say that these diet decisions may have gotten the best of me Monday night, when I opted for this for dinner:


Chili-Dog "Salad"
-- 2 large bratwursts
-- 2 cups of seasoned chili/taco meat
-- Shredded cheddar cheese. (How much? I dunno ... a lot. Yum!)
-- Too much guacamole
-- A few scattered black beans
-- A wisp of lettuce and a scattering of diced onion, neither of which ever really stood a chance against the rest of it
-- One diced tomato, to beef up the fraudulent "this is good for me" theory
-- Homemade salsa (Yum! And this part really was healthy)

I'm afraid that I must now report to you all that -- much to my surprise -- this concoction was neither dietetic nor was it good for me. (I know. You're surprised, too, right?!)

In point of fact, it caused me to lay semi-comatose on the couch for the rest of the night with a belly full of meat and cheese while watching old "Doctor Who" episodes with Tom Baker.  This entertainment selection may have been provoked by a subconscious to hijack the Tardis, go back in time a couple of hours, and tell myself, "Hey, self! More Lettuce, less bratwurst and chili meat!! Sheesh!!! There's no added sugar in there, but what are you freaking thinking?!"

Other than that incident ... so far, so good. Down four pounds from my shameful Jan. 2 high mark.

Phase Two of the 2014 "get back in better health" project involves dragging my butt back into the gym on a semi-regular basis.  The progress to date ... well, um ... I bought a new combination lock for my locker at the "Y" and a pair of gym shorts.

Still some work to do, I reckon.