The Return of Political Blogging to the ol' Patio Boat Blog; or, who are all these Democratic candidates and can they all fit into Iowa and New Hampshire at once?

A friend of mine asked me to weigh in on the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary, and although I had originally planned to skip the long 2019 runup to the 2020 primaries ... like any semi-reformed political pundit all I need is 1/4-ounce of encouragement to hold forth with profound wisdom.

So here's my profound wisdom, in its entirety: Find one or two of these candidates that you like and give them your support, even if it's only a small donation. If you live in a state in which they are campaigning, try to go see a few of them in person. Try to listen to what the candidates are saying, and try very hard to completely ignore the compulsive horse-race calling that the media will flog for the next 20 months. But for God's sake, unless you're actively working on one of these campaigns don't obsess over any of it -- especially the polls -- until we actually reach the year 2020.

This is going to be a long, long, long campaign. Don't burn out before we're even on the track to take a formation lap before the race.

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Now here's the rest of the post.

To get ready to write this post I first did a bit of a survey to find both the officially declared and the potential Democratic candidates who seem to be playing footsie with the notion of running. I came up with a list of 29 candidates, in great part assisted by fivethirtyeight.com's "What The Potential 2020 Candidates Are Doing And Saying" series of posts.

For the most part, I like nearly all of these Democratic candidates for one reason or another, even the ones that I had barely or never heard of before now. (That's right, Pete Buttigieg, I'm looking at you.) And a bit to my surprise, when I began to look at them I realized that nearly all of them had already have held office and accomplished things in the political realm. These are not candidates treating President of the United States as an entry-level political job, and for that I am grateful.

True story: I originally thought I had a list of 31 Dem candidates, but I had accidentally listed Jay Inslee three times without recognizing his previous listings on my spreadsheet.

Note to Jay Inslee: you may not yet have quite as much name recognition as you think. And a special Patioboat No-Prize goes to the first sharp reader who can say what Jay Inslee has previously done in politics without resorting to Google.

So, yeah, we're at that stage of the campaign. But eventually time will march on, some will fall by the wayside, some will advance beyond our expectations, and nine or ten months from now we'll have some genuinely meaningful public debates and discussion of the merits of the candidates and what they would do as President.

I'll try to avoid my own horse-race prognostications, but in looking over the list that I came up with, the candidates did seem to fall into a few logical albeit arbitrary buckets. So here's what I came up with, including a few comments about one or two of them:

Thank you for not participating….

These are folks mentioned in the media and/or genuinely exploring a candidacy who have publicly declared that they are no longer considering a 2020 campaign.

--Hillary Clinton (D) (Former Sec of State)
--Sherrod Brown (D) (OH Senator)
--Michael Bloomberg (D) (Former NYC Mayor, billionaire)
--Tom Steyer (D) (Billionaire)

I am deeply grateful to Hillary Clinton for giving 2020 a pass. I might've been interested in Sherrod Brown's candidacy, since he's always struck me as a bright guy with his heart in the right place. But I'm perfectly happy to have him sit out and wait to appear again on the short list for potential VP candidates, as he did in 2016.

Next up are people who *are* running for President, the foremost of whom I've split between a bucket that I call the "Top Tier" followed closely by another bucket I call "You've probably heard of...." The dividing line between those two groups is pretty murky and I'm not even sure I've got them right in these current groupings. All I can guarantee is that some of these names will shift among the two groups during 2019 and at least one of the candidates in my lower and large "Also appearing..." bucket will join this gang.


Top Tier

--Joe Biden (D) (Former VP)
--Bernie Sanders (D) (VT Senator)
--Elizabeth Warren (D) (MA Senator)
--Kamala Harris (D) (CA Senator)

I'm going to be on board with Elizabeth Warren's campaign. I very much like everything she has done on behalf of non-billionaire Americans, as a law professor speaking out against unjust financial laws, as the originator of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and as a United States Senator from Massachusetts.

In 2016 I was on board with Bernie, though I probably would've gone for Biden if he had run. In 2020, both of them have a distinct whiff of looking backwards towards glory days. Kamala Harris seems to have a lot in her favor as a candidate at the moment. We'll see if she capitalizes on it.

Thus far the Top Tier admission requires that you be a current or former Senator. Governors and US House Reps need not apply. Yet. Somebody will come along before it's over, I'm sure.

You've probably heard of…

--Cory Booker (D) (NJ Senator)

--Kirsten Gillibrand (D) (NY Senator)

--Beto O'Rourke (D) (Former TX US Rep)

--Amy Klobuchar (D) (MN Senator)

--Julian Castro (D) (Former Sec of HUD)

These folks all have some level of national name recognition and fundraising clout. Gillibrand and Beto would be my top two picks as the candidates likely to join the Top Tier by 2020, but realistically any of them could rise or any of them could fall into the sad land of "Also receiving votes but no delegates in Iowa...."

Also appearing…

Here we have another nineteen Democratic Party declared or potential Presidential candidates. Offhand, I'd say that -- improbably enough! -- Pete Buttigieg has the best chance to be the first of this gang to bust into the "You've probably heard of..." tier based on positive early reviews to his early stumping. But who knows what will really happen.

Some of these folks will choose not to run. Others will run briefly or futilely before dropping out, having never cracked the 1% barrier in a primary poll. But at least a few of these folks will evolve into genuinely meaningful candidates who campaign beyond Iowan and New Hampshire into the election, and nearly all of them have a chance to become that candidate.

Okay, Marianne Williamson seems unlikely to advance. And I'm willing to say that Mike Gravel probably won't make it into the Top Tier, since his stated campaign goal isn't "become President of the United States" but "to drive the Overton window of US foreign policy leftward." But hey, stranger things have happened and he has the catchiest twitter tag of all the candidates with #gravelanche. 

Coming soon to a cable TV "town hall" or a local strip mall or a boat show near you. Check 'em out:

--Pete Buttigieg (D) (South Bend, IN, Mayor)

--John Hickenlooper (D) (Former CO Governor)

--Stacey Abrams (D) (Former GA State Rep)

--Tulsi Gabbard (D) (HI US Rep)

--Terry McAuliffe (D) (Former VA Governor)

--John Delaney (D) (Former MD US Rep)

--Steve Bullock (D) (MT Governor)

--Eric Holder (D) (Former Attorney Gen.)

--Jay Inslee (D) (WA Governor)

--Michael Bennet (D) (CO Senator)

--Bill de Blasio (D) (NYC Mayor)

--Seth Moulton (D) (MA US Rep)

--Tim Ryan (D) (OH US Rep)

--Eric Swalwell (D) (CA US Rep)

--Jeff Merkley  (D) (OR Senator)

--Andrew Yang (D) (Businessman)

--Richard Ojeda  (D) (Former WV State Senator)

--Mike Gravel (D) (Former AK Senator)

--Marianne Williamson (D) (Author)

While I'm at it, I might as well mention the non-Dem buckets:

Independent billionaires we all want to go away

--Howard Schultz (I) (Former Starbucks CEO, billionaire)

As near as I can tell his campaign thus far has literally consisted of saying that he wants people to be more polite to billionaires. Why, Howard? Why?

Republicans who like to talk but ultimately won't have the cojones to challenge Trump

--John Kasich (R) (Former OH Governor)
--Larry Hogan (R) (MD Governor)
--Bill Weld (R) (Former MA Governor)
--Jeff Flake (R) (Former AZ Senator)

In all fairness to his inclusion in this bucket, Kasich is the one guy I can see who might genuinely try to mount a primary challenge to Trump. But I'd have to see some concrete evidence that he's building an organization and campaign very soon to think he means it.

Larry Hogan would have to increase in name recognition to make it to the "Also appearing..." bucket if there was going to be a genuine GOP primary. But we shall see.

Bill Weld was the Libertarian VP candidate in 2016, thus helping to siphon off a few anti-Trump votes from Clinton and ultimately helping to elect Trump. Good thinkin', Bill.

As for Jeff Flake ... oh, if only Jeff Flake had been somewhere the last couple of years where he might've done something meaningful. You know, like the US Senate.

Jeff Flake spent the last two years decrying the decay of Trumpism while voting for every step of the decay time after time after time on the floor of the Senate. He embodies all that has gone truly rotten with the entire Republican Party.

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So there it is, my profound wisdom in its entirety, plus a whole bunch more words on the state of the 2020 campaign.

Of course, I thought there was no chance in Hell that Donald Trump could ever win a single GOP state primary in 2016, so what do I know?