Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri: Place Yer Bets!

Just a quick note on the GOP Presidential Primary before we see the outcome of today's voting in the Colorado and Minnesota caucuses and the non-binding Missouri primary, since I think it could turn out to be a pivotal night in this campaign.

For a while now I've been thinking that Rick Santorum makes a more logical candidate for the non-Romney slot than Newt Gingrich.  Well, tonight's his chance to make his case.  Part of Santorum's argument for why he should be the nominee has been that he's the candidate best suited to win the Midwest in November.  That argument will be hard to make if he gets trounced by Romney today or finishes far behind Newt Gingrich again.

In the one poll that I've seen released, Santorum did have a lead in Minnesota and Missouri, so there's a chance for him to pick up one or two wins today.  Putting a win or two on the scoreboard would be more important for Santorum than just the delegates at stake tonight.  A Santorum victory or victories would give the GOP base another chance to jettison Newt Gingrich, something it seems they've been itching to do for weeks.  And it would likely give him a new infusion of resources in time to concentrate on the Michigan primary on Feb. 28, and the Super Tuesday contests on March 6.

So, there's a lot at stake tonight.  If Santorum doesn't win anything today, it might be time for him to consider packing it in.  If he finishes third everywhere, it will be time for him to consider packing it in.  But a big night for Santorum would give Mitt Romney an entirely new problem to worry about, despite the continuing decline in Gingrich's campaign.  Plus, since Romney has been trying to use his Florida and Nevada wins to re-establish his inevitability, a bad night by Romney would also be a blow for his campaign.

P.S.  Predictions? There's not much to go on, other than what I saw in this Fivethirtyeight.com preview of tonight's vote: The High Stakes in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri. But since I like to go on the record in advance, let's double down on Santorum.  My guess is that he picks up a couple of wins and finally replaces Gingrich in the pecking order. I could easily be entirely wrong.

Colorado
Romney - 34%
Santorum - 28%
Gingrich - 20%
Paul - 18%

Minnesota
Santorum - 33%
Paul - 25%
Romney - 22%
Gingrich - 20%

Missouri
Santorum - 35%
Romney - 26%
Paul - 21%
Gingrich - 18% (EDIT: Whoops ... when I put together my numbers hurriedly and at the last minute, I flat-out forgot to take out Gingrich because wasn't on the Missouri ballot tonight.  Also, there is an "Uncommitted" option.  Let's give 1/2 of his total to Santorum as the anti-Romney, and split the other 9% between Romney, Paul, and Uncommitted.  That gives us:

Santorum - 44%
Romney - 29%
Paul - 24%
Uncommitted - 3%)