You may or may not have noticed that a new wee box has shown up at the bottom of the left-hand column of the blog, the "2010 Book Reading List." This was something that Arsen suggested, in part because he's trying to figure out what readers read. I thought it was a pretty good idea, and might be fun though I fear it will just let the cat out of the bag that my general reading list lacks literary heft and is instead mostly a bunch of old mysteries and sci-fi novels.
I'll also try to throw a quick review for the books as I finish them, and in that spirit, here's my review of...
The Big Four by Agatha Christie (1927)
One of my current reading projects is to read the Hercule Poiroit mysteries by Agatha Christie in more-or-less the order in which they were released. It's been a lot of fun because -- not surprisingly -- some of these books are really great mysteries since the Poirot mysteries include titles such as Murder on the Links, The Death of Roger Ackroyd, and Murder on the Orient Express.
The Big Four has something in common with those mystery greats. It also contains a protagonist named Hercule Poirot. It's one of the earlier books, and is kind of a weird read. It's as if Agatha Christie read a Doc Savage novel and decided that Hercule Poirot should also travel internationally taking on a vast shadowy syndicate of evil led by criminal masterminds. Not surprisingly, it reads kind of like a Doc Savage novel, if Doc Savage were a short old Belgian dude with a big moustache.
This is not a good thing.
The plot itself is more a series of small mysteries than a single complex mystery. In fact, it reads a bit as if Christie took some Poirot short stories, slapped a supercriminal syndicate led by "The Big Four" on it, and called it a novel. It really doesn't hang together as a coherent plot. But some of those smaller mysteries make for pretty good set-piece mysteries.
It's far from a great Poirot novel. But there are some pretty good bits with Hastings, and some of the smaller mysteries are good if you ignore the vast flaws in the overall logic of the plot. So, if you've read a lot of the Poirot novels and are looking for some Poirot short stories that you haven't come across, you might give this one a try.
Summary: Strictly for Poirot compleatists.
Amazon: The Big Four
Where and How Acquired: Used, from John K. King Books.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Thursday, January 7, 2010
The Naughtful Naughties: The Money Supply
As seen in the comments on my previous post, my brother Mike has some pretty strong opinions about the ol' Federal Reserve System and the money supply. So, I reckoned I'd gather up a bit of historical macroeconomic data to see what I could find. That took a wee bit of time, so I'm not going to format and explain my source data in detail today, but I did want to pass along a couple of graphs that I put together.
I assembled a goodly batch of data from the past 50+ years. It was a worthwhile exercise, since one of the things I'd like to do in this Naughtful Naughties series is to put what happened over the last ten years into some historical perspective.
For today, I've chosen to look at five specific measures of change:
The Prime Rate -- The rate at which banks lend to favored customers. This is tied closely to the federal funds rate established by the Federal Reserve. (In retrospect, I probably should've gone directly to the federal funds rate.)
The Change in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Deflator -- This is a measure of inflation that is broader than the consumer Price Index because in addition to consumer products and services, it also includes government services and investment goods.
The Change in the Real GDP per capita -- The Real GDP measures the the total national output of goods and services in constant dollars. When divided by the total population it makes for a handy measure of our change in national wealth per person.
Federal Deficit as a Percentage of GDP -- Another possible source of change in the money supply. Is the federal government spending more than it takes in? (It usually is!) If so, it'll need to issue treasury bonds to make up the difference.
Change in M2 per capita -- M2 is the money supply measured in terms of currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, other checkable deposits, retail money market mutual funds, savings, and small time deposits. It's a pretty good measure of the dollars that are available for use. I divided it by the total population to see how much faster the money supply grew than might be expected if it just kept pace with our population.
What did I come up with? Here's what it looks like (You can click on the image to see the full-size graph):
I assembled a goodly batch of data from the past 50+ years. It was a worthwhile exercise, since one of the things I'd like to do in this Naughtful Naughties series is to put what happened over the last ten years into some historical perspective.
For today, I've chosen to look at five specific measures of change:
The Prime Rate -- The rate at which banks lend to favored customers. This is tied closely to the federal funds rate established by the Federal Reserve. (In retrospect, I probably should've gone directly to the federal funds rate.)
The Change in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Deflator -- This is a measure of inflation that is broader than the consumer Price Index because in addition to consumer products and services, it also includes government services and investment goods.
The Change in the Real GDP per capita -- The Real GDP measures the the total national output of goods and services in constant dollars. When divided by the total population it makes for a handy measure of our change in national wealth per person.
Federal Deficit as a Percentage of GDP -- Another possible source of change in the money supply. Is the federal government spending more than it takes in? (It usually is!) If so, it'll need to issue treasury bonds to make up the difference.
Change in M2 per capita -- M2 is the money supply measured in terms of currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, other checkable deposits, retail money market mutual funds, savings, and small time deposits. It's a pretty good measure of the dollars that are available for use. I divided it by the total population to see how much faster the money supply grew than might be expected if it just kept pace with our population.
What did I come up with? Here's what it looks like (You can click on the image to see the full-size graph):
If the zigs and zags of that graph hurt your eyes, I also "smoothed" the data by taking some five-year averages. (So, the 1975 point has the average percentages for 1971-1975.) I often find that a useful way to see broader trends:
For today, I'm not drawing any conclusions. But I do think it's interesting to look at some of the relationships that seem to emerge among these sorts of measures that step back from the daily ebbs and flows of the financial news and look at the year-to-year changes, especially when you keep in mind what was happening in the economy during the various periods covered here.
Here are the sources for the data I compiled today:
Prime Rate (The US Federal Reserve)
Money Supply (M1 & M2 , M3 )(The US Federal Reserve)
Consumers Price Index (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Gross Domestic Product (Measuringworth.org, which had a more convenient format than the federal tables I found.)
US Federal Deficit as a Percent of GDP (usgovernmentspending.com)
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
The Naughtful Naughties
Since year-end statistics about a variety of things will be coming out soon, I thought I'd put up a quick post to let you all know that I'm kicking off a new feature for this year, occasional posts that will review statistics from the last decade. I expect to concentrate on financial and economic issues, but I'm sure I'll touch on some social, political, and other issues as I go along.
Like a lot of folks, it feels to me that the U.S. went pretty far off the tracks over the last ten years. Some of those trends were new, but a lot of them have been building for some time. What I hope to accomplish is better understand where we've been lately, and where we're going. And by posting some facts and my thoughts about them here, perhaps some of you can also add to our understanding.
Look for three categories of posts:
I don't have a big pile of data for today's post, but I do have a homework assignment for all of you. It's the little bit of web surfing that started me down this path.
I was thinking about the stagnation of income over the past decade, and feeling pretty fortunate that I made a better salary now than I did ten years ago. Then I went to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Inflation Calculator. It uses the Consumer Price Index to calculate what a current dollar would have been worth in past years. Not surprisingly, I found that the vast majority of my income increase over the last ten years had been eaten up by inflation. I'd always been aware of that at some level, but it was a bit of a kick in the pants to see it in black and white.
So that's your homework assignment, if you care to take it. Go to the Inflation Calculator, enter your 2000 income, and see what it would have been in 2009. Or try the reverse, enter your 2009 income and see what it would have been in 2000. How do you feel about it?
I feel stagnant. And I don't feel good about it.
Like a lot of folks, it feels to me that the U.S. went pretty far off the tracks over the last ten years. Some of those trends were new, but a lot of them have been building for some time. What I hope to accomplish is better understand where we've been lately, and where we're going. And by posting some facts and my thoughts about them here, perhaps some of you can also add to our understanding.
Look for three categories of posts:
- The Naughtful Naughties: What Went Wrong
- The Naughtful Naughties: What Went Right
- The Naughtful Naughties: What I Flat-Out Don't Understand
I don't have a big pile of data for today's post, but I do have a homework assignment for all of you. It's the little bit of web surfing that started me down this path.
I was thinking about the stagnation of income over the past decade, and feeling pretty fortunate that I made a better salary now than I did ten years ago. Then I went to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Inflation Calculator. It uses the Consumer Price Index to calculate what a current dollar would have been worth in past years. Not surprisingly, I found that the vast majority of my income increase over the last ten years had been eaten up by inflation. I'd always been aware of that at some level, but it was a bit of a kick in the pants to see it in black and white.
So that's your homework assignment, if you care to take it. Go to the Inflation Calculator, enter your 2000 income, and see what it would have been in 2009. Or try the reverse, enter your 2009 income and see what it would have been in 2000. How do you feel about it?
I feel stagnant. And I don't feel good about it.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
This Week's MC-D Colts/Beagle Haiku, plus bonus lyrics from a sprited song of denial!
No doubt about it, our intrepid Colts/Beagle correspondent is having a hard time dealing with the fact that the Colts are demonstrably worse than the Buffalo Bills, as seen in the deep denial that permeates the song lyrics that follow this week's haiku:
Milestones Buried Under Bills Blizzard
Manning, Wayne, and Clark
Can't yellow Buffalo's snow
Like Katie Beagle!
Mad Colts Love Song
The franchise is taking some heat
For letting our great team get beat,
But despite all the "coulda"s and "shoulda"s
It just doesn't suck to be us.
As for pursuit of perfection,
This season's a pretty damned good'un!
So Caldwell's won't be like Shula's?
It still doesn't suck to be us.
The media's Armchair sh#t flies,
But Indy's got eyes on the prize:
XLIV's within reach; why the fuss---
How can it suck to be us?
So all naysayers who boo
Can go stuff it up their wazoo!
Whatever the possible codas,
It really don't suck to be us!
--Mary Campbell-Droze
Milestones Buried Under Bills Blizzard
Manning, Wayne, and Clark
Can't yellow Buffalo's snow
Like Katie Beagle!
Mad Colts Love Song
The franchise is taking some heat
For letting our great team get beat,
But despite all the "coulda"s and "shoulda"s
It just doesn't suck to be us.
As for pursuit of perfection,
This season's a pretty damned good'un!
So Caldwell's won't be like Shula's?
It still doesn't suck to be us.
The media's Armchair sh#t flies,
But Indy's got eyes on the prize:
XLIV's within reach; why the fuss---
How can it suck to be us?
So all naysayers who boo
Can go stuff it up their wazoo!
Whatever the possible codas,
It really don't suck to be us!
--Mary Campbell-Droze
Monday, January 4, 2010
The Naughts Are Over and Done
Lately there seems to have been a bit of an outbreak of the assertion that the last decade did not end on December 31, 2009, and that it will still be with us for another year. I posted a reply on the topic on a post on Arsen Darnay's LaMarotte blog (Getting the Calendar Right) and thought I'd share it here:
A year left to still accomplish goals for this decade? Too late. There may still be a case to be made on the century score, but the Naughtful Naughts -- that kidney stone of a decade* -- are done. We identify decades by the decennial number, thus the Sixties, the Seventies, the Eighties, etc. You won't hear much argument that 1980 was part of The Seventies, even if Disco was still running strong.
Fortunately, there's a simple solution for those who feel themselves bound by two-hundred consecutive ten-counts. The first decade had just nine years, years 1 AD through 9 AD. Heresy? Hardly, in a calendar system that throws in an extra day once every four years, an occaisonal leap-second, and that once even lopped seventeen days out of the calendar altogether.
*They were painful, and we're glad they've passed.
A year left to still accomplish goals for this decade? Too late. There may still be a case to be made on the century score, but the Naughtful Naughts -- that kidney stone of a decade* -- are done. We identify decades by the decennial number, thus the Sixties, the Seventies, the Eighties, etc. You won't hear much argument that 1980 was part of The Seventies, even if Disco was still running strong.
Fortunately, there's a simple solution for those who feel themselves bound by two-hundred consecutive ten-counts. The first decade had just nine years, years 1 AD through 9 AD. Heresy? Hardly, in a calendar system that throws in an extra day once every four years, an occaisonal leap-second, and that once even lopped seventeen days out of the calendar altogether.
*They were painful, and we're glad they've passed.
The Detroit Lions 2009 season as viewed by my Facebook statuses.
For those who just couldn't get enough of the 2009 Detroit Lions, here's a season recap, courtesy of my Facebook statuses. It's just as well that I wasn't on Facebook last year when they went 0-16. I'm pretty sure that many of the words I used to describe them in 2008 are prohibited on Facebook.
2009 Detroit Lions Preseason
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Preseason Week 1 Sat, Aug 15 vs Atlanta (P) W 27 - 26
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Preseason Week 2 Sat, Aug 22 @ Cleveland (P) L 10 - 27
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John Magee Down 20-0 after one quarter? Multiple turnovers? Dumb penalties? Getting their asses kicked on the offensive *and*defensive lines? Giving up kick returns for touchdowns? The Lions don't need preseason. I say they're already in mid-season form! August 22, 2009 at 9:27pm
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Preseason Week 3 Sat, Aug 29 vs Indianapolis (P) W 18 - 17
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Preseason Week 4 Thu, Sep 3 @ Buffalo (P) W 17 - 6
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Stacey Tucker-Blosch Some Lion humor from the Onion...
NFL Players Mentor Troubled Detroit Lions
September 8, 2009 at 12:51pm
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John Magee I know this is fake because it implies that professional football players could be found at a Detroit Lions practice. September 8, 2009 at 6:16 pm
2009 Detroit Lions Regular Season
John Magee is callin' it a day at work and off to buy some chicken wings for grilling in celebration of tonight's kickoff of the NFL season. September 10, 2009 at 6:36pm
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Phil Gaven Must be nice to watch on a night when you know the Lions can't lose. September 10, 2009 at 8:03pm
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John Magee Don't be so overconfident, Phil. September 10, 2009 at 8:44pm
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Week 1 Sun, Sep 13 @ New Orleans (0-0) L 27 - 45
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John Magee and Monique are off to watch the Lions game. Will this be the week that finally brings a Win? Alas, since Mike Bell ran for 140 yards against us last week, I fully expect to see Adrian Peterson set the NFL single-game rushing record today. September 20, 2009 at 11:25am
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Week 2 Sun, Sep 20 vs Minnesota (1-0) L 13 - 27
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John Magee Game Report: The Lions were ahead after the first half and kept Adrian Peterson to less than 100 yards rushing. In Lions terms this is the equivalent of a three-game win streak! September 20, 2009 at 5:35pm
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Week 3 Sun, Sep 27 vs Washington (1-1) W 19 - 14
(The first Lion victory since 2007!)
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John Magee Go hard, win the game. / With honor you will keep your fame. / Down the field and gain, / A Lion victory! / GO LIONS! September 27, 2009 at 5:18pm
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John Magee Congratulations, Lions! September 27, 2009 at 5:19pm
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Susan Magee Riordan Shea's enjoying school AND your Lions won a game? Duck and cover, people, duck and cover. September 27, 2009 at 5:25pm
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Robert Forster Yay Lions! Do it again! Do it again! We like it! We like it! September 27, 2009 at 5:46pm
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Lori Pasto Holy Crap! The Lions won!! Congrats! September 27, 2009 at 6:35pm
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Eric Blosch There's always next week! September 27, 2009 at 10:25pm
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(The Redskins would bounce back from this disgrace finish the season at a lofty 4-12. Well, 4-12 is lofty to Lion fans, anyway.)
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Week 4 Sun, Oct 4 @ Chicago (2-1) L 24 - 48
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Week 5 Sun, Oct 11 vs Pittsburgh (2-2) L 20 - 28
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Week 6 Sun, Oct 18 @ Green Bay (2-2) L 0 - 26
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Week 7 Bye
(Thank goodness!)
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Week 8 Sun, Nov 1 vs St. Louis (0-7) L 10 - 17
(This was the Ram's only victory of the season. The only reason St. Louis didn't tie the Lions' all-time NFL 0-16 record of last season was that they were able to beat ... THE LIONS! Aaarggh!)
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Week 9 Sun, Nov 8 @ Seattle (2-5) L 20 - 32
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John Magee The Lions are the stupidest team ever. They fell for the "no play" fake play on fourth down and jumped offsides. Even Pee-Wee teams don't fall for that. November 8, 2009 at 6:44pm
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Week 10 Sun, Nov 15 @ Minnesota (7-1) L 10 - 27
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John Magee, Monique, Michelle, and Stella are off to watch to Stupor Bowl today: the Hapless Browns (1-8) come to Detroit today to take on the Feeble Lions (1-8). (City names have been changed to protect innocent bystanders in those two cities.) On the bright side, this is a game that the Lions can win! Go, Lions!!! November 22, 2009 at 8:55am
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Week 11 Sun, Nov 22 vs Cleveland (1-8) W 38 - 37
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John Magee ... Down the field to gain / A Lions victory! / Gooooooo, Lions!!! November 22, 2009 at 5:35pm
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John Magee I hope he eventually learns not to throw dumb interceptions because the Lions finally have a quarterback I can root for. This video of Stafford on Sunday is awesome! November 25, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Sound FX: Matthew Stafford mic'd up: Listen to Matthew Stafford lead the Lions to a win vs. Cleveland and play through injury.
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Week 12 Thu, Nov 26 vs Green Bay (6-4) L 12 - 34
(The Annual Thanksgiving Day Stinker, a national tradition!)
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John Magee is trying to summon the will to string up a few more Christmas lights, but has instead found the couch and the Sunday paper to be too strong so far. We can only hope that the Lions force me to turn off the TV in disgust and get on with my day before halftime. (To be honest, that's usually the Lions' top accomplishment on most Sundays.) December 6, 2009 at 12:50pm
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Week 13 Sun, Dec 6 @ Cincinnati (8-3) L 13 - 23
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John Magee Yes, indeed. The result of that Lions' game was entirely predictable. It forced me outside by early in the third quarter, and our Christmas lights are now set. December 6, 2009 at 5:47pm
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Week 14 Sun, Dec 13 @ Baltimore (6-6) L 3 - 48
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John Magee and Monique are puttering about the house and watching football. Yes, that means that the Lions game is over and we've moved on to other games. I can't really call what they did today during that 48-3 beatdown by the Ravens "football." December 13, 2009 at 5:10pm
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Paul Chambers Didn't the Ravens spot them 3 points? December 13, 2009 at 8:33pm
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Tom Mulhall OK, so it's bad enough your wife is married to you, but you make her watch the Lions? I can't decide which is worse! December 13, 2009 at 9:23pm
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John Magee In her case, "watching" consisted of occasionally walking by and asking, "How bad is it now?"
I reckon she put at least as much effort into it as the Lions did. December 13, 2009 at 9:52pm
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(And now, the national perspective from Dave McClure in California.)
David B Mcclure Thanks to the snow the 49er game was delayed so now I have to watch the Lions lose. December 20, 2009 at 1:48pm
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David B Mcclure See foot ... aim ... FIRE! December 20, 2009 at 1:51pm
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John Magee Those of us in Detroit have been spared the horror of the Lions game due to the blackout. I'm happy for you that we could share it with you. (Actually, it's been on the Sunday Ticket Red Zone quite a bit so far, due to all the Lion turnovers and Cardinal scores.) December 20, 2009 at 2:11pm
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David B Mcclure Holy smoke! You're missing a good one! December 20, 2009 at 4:01pm
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Week 15 Sun, Dec 20 vs Arizona (8-5) L 24 - 31
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John Magee And yet the outcome was preordained. Lions lose. December 20, 2009 at 4:59pm
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Week 16 Sun, Dec 27 @ San Francisco (6-8) L 6 - 20
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John Magee found the perfect film clip to express how he feels about watching Lions games these days. December 28, 2009 at 1:32pm
Thank you sir may I have another?
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Patrick Iaquinto I'm not sure why I watch. I'm expecting a competitive, entertaining game but it rarely happens. December 28, 2009 at 3:20pm
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John Magee I expect to see a competitive, entertaining game on Sundays, too. That's why I have DirecTV Sunday Ticket. So that I can turn the channel to a competitive, entertaining game after the Lions get blown out.
Thank goodness they're going to be blacked out next Sunday. I'd feel compelled to watch, and I'm sure that nothing good could come of it. December 28, 2009 at 11:35pm
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John Magee is so sad that the Lions aren't blacked out today. Now I'm going to have to watch them. It's horrible, but you can't avert your eyes -- kind of like a train wreck. A decade-long train wreck. January 3 at 12:07pm
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Week 17 Sun, Jan 3 vs Chicago (6-9) L 23 - 37
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John Magee Oh, Lions, why must you be so horrible? Why? Why? Why? January 3 at 4:04pm
Saturday, January 2, 2010
January Has Arrived on Wolverine Lake.
On New Year's Eve the temperature crept up to a balmy 35 degrees. Monique and I took advantage of the heat wave to have a flurry of outdoor fun in the ... well, not "fun in the sun." Make it, "in the dull grey of a Michigan winter day."
Monique and Anna from next door went out and made a snowman.
Monique and Anna from next door went out and made a snowman.
Meanwhile, John and Dean from across the street cleared the ice rink out front on the lake.
Today, the sun returned. But it forgot to bring any warmth with it. It's seven degrees Fahrenheit outside this afternoon.
Pretty, but cold!
Sure, it looks quiet out there in this still photo. But this quick video should give you a better idea of the activity level on the lake on a single-digit January day.
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